Waller演講

Waller笑稱(chēng)上次（2月）的演講像是已經(jīng)過(guò)去了一年之久……談到就業(yè)問(wèn)題時(shí)，他說(shuō)目前的就業(yè)及格線(xiàn)是“0”——由于勞動(dòng)力零增長(zhǎng)（移民和退休），現(xiàn)在每月只需新增零個(gè)就業(yè)崗位就能維持失業(yè)率穩(wěn)定，單月就業(yè)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)不再是絕對(duì)的衰退信號(hào)。如此環(huán)境中，雇主們正在“走鋼絲”——因?yàn)橹罢腥颂y所以現(xiàn)在不敢裁員，又因?yàn)閷?duì)未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)沒(méi)底所以不敢招人。

這次演講里有不少無(wú)奈的自嘲，倒是跟最近diss研究者的風(fēng)氣迎合上了。

"So what happens next? Let me stipulate that I believe economic forecasting is hard even in normal circumstances. I am tempted to say it is a bit like batting averages in baseball, where an excellent result is failing two-thirds of the time, but that wouldn't be fair to baseball—we forecasters have an even lower rate of success."

預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)就像棒球擊球率，失敗三分之二都算優(yōu)秀；但這對(duì)棒球不太公平，因?yàn)槲覀兘?jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)者的成功率其實(shí)更低。

對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的重視和強(qiáng)調(diào)也符合此前聯(lián)儲(chǔ)其他官員的調(diào)性。

Then there is the issue of how the oil shock, piled onto the lingering effect from import tariffs, affects expectations of future inflation. The standard practice for policymakers is to look through shocks like this that temporarily elevate inflation. But what happens when there is a sequence of these shocks? In 2021 and 2022, the pandemic-induced demand and supply chain constraints were each considered one-off shocks that initially led me to look through their upward pressure on prices. But, ultimately, this series of shocks pushed up inflation to near 9 percent by one measure, longer-range inflation expectations started to move up, and the Federal Reserve took action. Learning from that experience, I will be cautious when faced with a sequence of transitory shocks.While intellectually it makes sense to look through each shock,with a sequence of shocks, policymakers need to be more vigilant.This is because if the shocks hit one after another, they will keep inflation elevated for quite some time.The standard "look through" can become problematic if businesses and households start to believe inflation is persistently high and it affects their price- and wage-setting behavior.

面對(duì)單一沖擊（如關(guān)稅），美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通常選擇“忽略其短期影響”（也就是看穿）；但如果疫情、關(guān)稅、原油暴漲接連發(fā)生，“連續(xù)沖擊”會(huì)徹底改變大眾的通脹預(yù)期，再選擇無(wú)視將面臨災(zāi)難性后果。

High inflation and a weak labor market would be very complicated for a policymaker.If I face this situation, I'll have to balance the risks to the two sides of the Fed's dual mandate to determine the appropriate path of policy, and that may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target rangeif the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market.

目前短期看來(lái)Waller更重視通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

褐皮書(shū)

4月的褐皮書(shū)對(duì)比2月的有幾個(gè)變化：

2月份的不確定性主要集中在關(guān)稅政策演變和惡劣的冬季天氣 ；時(shí)至今日，“中東沖突”成為引發(fā)不確定性的首要因素，導(dǎo)致許多企業(yè)在招聘、定價(jià)和資本投資上采取了“觀望”態(tài)度。

成本驅(qū)動(dòng)因素從“關(guān)稅”蔓延至“全面能源沖擊”，雖然整體價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)仍被定性為“溫和”，但所有轄區(qū)都報(bào)告稱(chēng)，由于中東沖突，能源和燃料成本急劇上升。這引發(fā)了連鎖反應(yīng)，導(dǎo)致貨運(yùn)、物流以及塑料、化肥等石油基產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格大幅上漲，投入成本的增長(zhǎng)普遍超過(guò)了銷(xiāo)售價(jià)格的增長(zhǎng)，從而壓縮了企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)空間。

就業(yè)依舊保持穩(wěn)定至略有增長(zhǎng)的態(tài)勢(shì)，人員流失率低。邊際變化在于用工形式的偏好轉(zhuǎn)變：由于企業(yè)對(duì)承諾提供永久職位持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度，多個(gè)轄區(qū)指出對(duì)臨時(shí)或合同工的需求增加。2月份企業(yè)更多強(qiáng)調(diào)引入AI是為了“提高生產(chǎn)力”而非替代工人；而在4月份，報(bào)告明確指出由AI驅(qū)動(dòng)的生產(chǎn)力提升已經(jīng)使許多公司能夠“推遲或減少招聘”。

Logan談縮表

繼此前Miran談資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的未來(lái)選項(xiàng)以后，Logan也加入了討論。演講中提到了兩種方法：

If wereduce banks’ need for reserves so that banks shift the demand curve inward, we’re still meeting banks’ demand. If werun up the demand curve and return to scarce reserves, we’re pushing up market rates relative to IORB and putting a price on reserves that banks don’t face today.

要么是減少銀行的準(zhǔn)備金需求，要么是回歸稀缺準(zhǔn)備金。

Logan支持前者，她提到幾個(gè)點(diǎn)：

一，沒(méi)成本：

滿(mǎn)足銀行的準(zhǔn)備金需求對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來(lái)說(shuō)幾乎沒(méi)有什么成本，因?yàn)殡S著時(shí)間的推移，聯(lián)儲(chǔ)從支持準(zhǔn)備金的資產(chǎn)上賺取的利息，與支付出去的利息（IORB）是相匹配的。

二，逼銀行在準(zhǔn)備金問(wèn)題上摳摳索索，只會(huì)平添金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（搞錢(qián)荒）：

Pressing banks to economize on reserves would only increase risk in the financial system.

三，反對(duì)搞準(zhǔn)備金計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)

To avoid those challenges, there have been proposals recently to giveevery bank a quota on reserves and pay interest only up to the quota.That would stabilize demand, help control rates and reduce the cost to banks,but quotas are a form of central planning.The government would be allocating a valuable resource among private firms instead of letting the free market speak. I don’t think I need to explain to you the drawbacks that could have for innovation, growth and competition.

四，現(xiàn)有監(jiān)管的問(wèn)題——低效率

某些流動(dòng)性監(jiān)管規(guī)定可能會(huì)迫使銀行持有準(zhǔn)備金緩沖，但隨后又在危機(jī)發(fā)生時(shí)阻礙銀行動(dòng)用這些緩沖資金。

五，支持通過(guò)貼現(xiàn)窗口促進(jìn)信貸：

If banks are confident they can monetize assets through the Fed when needed,they could choose most of the time to hold fewer reserves and more non-reserve assets such as loans.

如果銀行確信在需要時(shí)可以通過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將資產(chǎn)變現(xiàn)，他們就可以在多數(shù)時(shí)間選擇持有更少的準(zhǔn)備金，并將資金轉(zhuǎn)而投向貸款等非準(zhǔn)備金資產(chǎn)。

監(jiān)管變化

1.降低了資本要求，活錢(qián)更多。

2.活錢(qián)更多，放貸能力就強(qiáng)，資本配置活動(dòng)也可能加強(qiáng)（回購(gòu)、并購(gòu)）。

3.房貸利率有望下降， 新規(guī)把房貸的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重和貸款價(jià)值比（LTV）掛鉤了。

4.其他的一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重和技術(shù)性變化，此處不贅述。

5.總體判斷就是未來(lái)貨幣增長(zhǎng)不看央行看銀行。

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