航班取消，價格暴漲……你的五一機票還好嗎？

伊朗局勢持續不明朗，不斷上漲的航空燃油價格對航空業的影響也日益加劇。從取消航班到調高票價，亞洲航司正在使出渾身解數應對這場燃油供應危機。

With the Middle East crisis heightening jet fuel supply risks, Asian airlines are taking action, to cope with supply instability and rising costs, from cutting flights to raising fares.

航空燃油通常占航空公司運營成本的25-30%。據國際航空運輸協會的數據，截至4月17日的一周，國際航空燃油均價為每桶184.64美元。雖然較本月初的200美元以上有所回落，但對比2月28日美以對伊朗發動襲擊前約90美元的價格，短短兩個月不到的時間急升一倍。

Jet fuel — which accounts for about 25-30 percent of airline operating costs — saw average prices fall 6.7 percent to $184.64 per barrel in the week ending April 17 after hitting over $200 earlier this month, according to the price monitor of the International Air Transport Association.

圖源：東方IC

4月20日，日本兩大航空公司全日空與日本航空宣布，原定6月實施的燃油附加費調整將提前至5月1日起執行。以全日航空為例，加價后從日本飛往歐洲和北美的單程燃油附加費將從31900日元（約1365元）增加至56,000日元。

韓國主要航司也在上周宣布，5月的燃油附加費將上調至該國歷史最高水平。這是韓國現行燃油附加費體系自2016年采用以來，首次適用最高檔標準。其中大韓航空從韓國往返青島、大連等短途航線將收取7.5萬韓元（346元），而往返歐洲和美洲則需多支付超過100萬韓元。

Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways, Japan's two largest airlines, said on Monday that they will double their international fuel surcharges from May 1.

South Korean carriers also raised fuel surcharges for May to the highest level in the country's history, reaching Level 33 for the first time, up from Level 18 in April.

With the new price hike, taking Korean Air, the country's largest full-service carrier, for a one-way long-haul trip to New York would require a fuel surcharge of 564,000 won ($383), up over 80 percent.

據韓國《中央日報》報道，作為全球最大航空燃油出口國之一，雖然政府并無正式限制，但韓國煉油商目前主要優先保障國內供應，幾乎暫停出口。

此舉預計對美國影響最大。標普全球海運商品數據顯示，去年，美國西海岸進口的航空燃油中，超過82%來自韓國，日均進口量逾10.9萬桶，遙遙領先其他供應國。

One of the world's biggest jet fuel exporters, South Korea has been focusing on domestic use and nearly suspended exports, according to Korea JoongAng Daily.

This is expected to affect its major buyers, especially the United States. According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, South Korea accounted for over 82 percent of jet fuel imports to the US West Coast.

韓國仁荷工業專門大學航空經營學系教授李輝英（Lee Hwi-young）對《中國日報》表示，雖然韓國有數月的原油儲備，但其加工成航空燃油并出口的能力已幾乎達到極限。他預計，出口可能要等到今年年底才能恢復正常，而這也要取決于伊朗戰爭的結果。

"While we have several months of crude oil reserves, our capacity to process it into jet fuel for export has reached its limit," said Lee Hwi-young, a professor in the Department of Airline Service Management and Logistics Systems at Inha Technical College in South Korea.

除了日韓以外，東南亞地區最容易受到旅游業相關沖擊。英國智庫牛津經濟研究院4月15日發布的報告指出，由于國際旅客對國內生產總值和就業的貢獻較大，菲律賓和泰國面臨的風險最高。

越南、馬來西亞和印尼的航空公司均已因燃油庫存減少而削減航班。泰國航空也在近日宣布，將于5月取消或減少46條國內和國際航線的航班及頻次，這些航線包括曼谷連接北京、新加坡及首爾等多個熱門目的地。

Jet fuel shortages are constraining aviation capacity across Asia, with Southeast Asia being the most exposed to a tourism-related hit, according to an April 15 report by the British think tank Oxford Economics.

"The Philippines and Thailand appear most exposed to a jet fuel-triggered aviation downturn given the importance of international arrivals to GDP and employment," the report said, adding that airlines in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have cut flights as fuel stocks dwindle.

國際航空運輸協會理事長威利·沃爾什（Willie Walsh）17日在一份聲明中表示，國際能源署對潛在航空燃油短缺的評估令人警醒，預計5月底歐洲也會開始出現由于航空燃油短缺而取消航班的情況。

While flight cancellations are already happening in Asia, IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said on April 17 that there could be some cancellations in Europe due to a lack of jet fuel by the end of May.

The IATA has also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal operation, jet fuel prices could take months to normalize.

專家還指出，與擁有穩定客戶的大型航空公司相比，油價上漲將令廉航經營更困難，因其客戶群體對票價更加敏感。如果這種需求狀況持續一年，廉航將很難生存，甚至面臨破產風險。

Analysts said that the current uncertainty in jet fuel supply and the subsequent increase in fuel surcharges would place low-cost carriers at the biggest risk.

記者：楊涵

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